CATASTROPHE LOOMING FOR GULF COAST

This is beginning to be a striking similarity to Hurricane Katrina–if not worse..16 years to the exact date of when the storm struck New Orleans..

THE LATEST WEATHER WARNING FROM NHC:

WTNT24 KNHC 272041
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF ROCKEFELLER
WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
INCLUDING VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND
LAKE MAUREPAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST
OF LOUISIANA FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE 
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA
* MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  83.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 120SE  45SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  83.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  82.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.5N  84.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.3N  86.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.1N  89.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.6N  90.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N  91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.5N  91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.4N  89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N  86.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N  83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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