Day: August 27, 2021

  • ‘Solar tsunami’ set  for August 30

    ‘Solar tsunami’ set for August 30

    As though the weather on the planet wasn’t already scary enough, cue the sun: a C3 flare erupted from sunspot region 2859 on the Sun on August 26 and appears to have sent a solar blast towards the Earth..

    The  National Weather Service’s Space Weather Prediction Center  confirmed a partial halo CME took place. In a statement released by the SWPC, analysis and modeling are now underway to determine if there may be any possible geoeffective component to this CME.

    It appears this solar explosion set-off a “solar tsunami”.

    A solar tsunami, also known as a Moreton Wave or a Moreton-Ramsey Wave, is the signature of a large-scale solar corona shock wave generated by solar flares.  Initially spotted in the late 1950’s, technology deployed by NASA in 2009 confirmed the presence and the mechanics of such a tsunami…

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1431366900647301121
    Some have said the best “Northern Lights” of the century are coming!

    The best guess for the potential impact of the “Solar Tsunami” will be August 30 ..

  • CATASTROPHE LOOMING FOR GULF COAST

    CATASTROPHE LOOMING FOR GULF COAST

    This is beginning to be a striking similarity to Hurricane Katrina–if not worse..16 years to the exact date of when the storm struck New Orleans..

    THE LATEST WEATHER WARNING FROM NHC:

    WTNT24 KNHC 272041
    TCMAT4
    
    HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092021
    2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF ROCKEFELLER
    WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
    INCLUDING VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND
    LAKE MAUREPAS.
    
    A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM
    INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE
    PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
    COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
    BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST
    OF LOUISIANA FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE 
    MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
    * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
    MAUREPAS
    
    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF
    YOUTH
    * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
    * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
    
    A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA
    * MOBILE BAY
    
    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
    * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
    * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
    * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
    
    A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
    INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
    COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
    FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
    HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
    LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
    PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
    OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
    INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
    
    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
    36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
    PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
    AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
    
    A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
    THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
    COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
    
    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
    BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
    WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
    
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS
    SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  83.2W AT 27/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  13 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
    64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
    50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
    34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
    12 FT SEAS..  0NE 120SE  45SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  83.2W AT 27/2100Z
    AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  82.7W
    
    FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.5N  84.8W
    MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
    34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.3N  86.9W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.1N  89.0W
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
    50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
    34 KT...130NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.6N  90.6W
    MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
    50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
    34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N  91.3W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
    34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.5N  91.1W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.4N  89.3W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N  86.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N  83.2W
    
    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0000Z
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    
  • COVID deaths: Forecasting model predicts 100,000 more Americans will die by December 1

    COVID deaths: Forecasting model predicts 100,000 more Americans will die by December 1

    This is dire information..
    — Read on 6abc.com/10979853/

    More..

    The U.S. is projected to see nearly 100,000 more COVID-19 deaths between now and Dec. 1, according to the nation’s most closely watched forecasting model. But health experts say that toll could be cut in half if nearly everyone wore a mask in public spaces.

    In other words, what the coronavirus has in store this fall depends on human behavior.

  • Fear that Ida could strike as Cat 3

    Fear that Ida could strike as Cat 3

    Tropical Storm Ida swirled toward a strike on Cuba on Friday showing hallmarks of a rare, rapidly intensifying storm that could speed across warm Gulf waters and slam into Louisiana as a Category 3 hurricane on Sunday, the National Hurricane Center warned.

    “The forecast track has it headed straight towards New Orleans. Not good,” said Jim Kossin, a senior scientist with The Climate Service.

    Ida posed a relatively low threat to tobacco-rich western Cuba, where forecasters predicted a glancing blow on Friday. The real danger begins over the Gulf, where forecasts were aligned in predicting Ida will strengthen very quickly into a major hurricane, reaching 115 mph (185 kph) before landfall in the Mississippi River delta late Sunday or early Monday, experts said.